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A rise in container capacity will halt the increase in freight on the major east-west trades according to Drewry’s latest tool, the Container Capacity Insight (CCI), launched on 20  February.

A surge of 8% month-on-month across all three major east/west trades from February to March this year can be broken down into a surge in capacity of 11% from Asia to west coast North America and a contraction of 14% from South Asia to North Europe.

The CCI shows Atlantic rates surging 10% this week, but Pacific rates easing and Asia to Europe levels falling even as carriers blank sailings slow vessels in a bid to cut capacity, but also to re-align schedules following the diversion of vessels around the Cape of Good Hope.

Overall, the expectations from most industry observers and analysts is that rates will slow as capacity continues to be delivered and demand fails to keep pace in challenging global economic circumstances.

“It is always the fundamentals that counts,” noted Darron Wadey, analyst at Dynamar.

“It is fair to say that freight rates have definitely risen with some headline indices around double those of one year earlier, and route-specific indices as Asia-Europe and the Pacific performing (much) better than that even,” he added.

Nevertheless, Wadey believes these rate increases are a reflection of the extra costs from diverting around the Cape for Asia-Europe and Asia-US East Coast, put at around US$10 million or around US$1,000/FEU on a 20,000 TEU ship, rather than a tight supply/demand equation.

One forwarder confirmed that Asia to Europe rates were hovering at around the US$4,000/FEU level, with forward tariffs now being valid for two weeks, rather than a week, and no diversions charges added to the total.

Even if carriers manage to tie shippers into high-cost long-term contracts there is a danger that when spot rates fall below the contracted level, shippers will want to shift to the new rate, believes Wadey.

That is not the view of all the market observers with Linerlytica claiming: “The bullish market sentiment has not been dampened by the Lunar New Year break with carriers still retaining most of their recent rate gains, defying the predictions of a post-holiday correction.”

Asked about this bullish outlook, Linerlytica took a softer tone: “We are not suggesting that freight rates are not going to fall. A post-holiday correction is certainly to be expected, but the key question is how sharp will the drop be and for how long?

“At this point, rates are still holding up relatively well and the Red Sea diversions will keep capacity tight at least for the next three months,” explained a spokesperson for Linerlytica.

Not surprisingly James Hookham, director at the Global Shippers’ Forum, believes there is “no fundamental pressure on rates”. Referring to the shortage of boxes raised as a reason to raise rates recently, he quipped, “the lines have found their boxes”.

Hookham claimed his members are not talking about rates increasing at the moment, but rather that the situation has plateaued, and even peak season surcharges have moderated or in some instances disappeared altogether.

Hookham did shippers, however, to be aware when signing contracts because vessel operators have said they will resume sailing via Suez, at the earliest possible time. “Shippers should consider only signing three-month deals or adding a ‘return to Suez rate’ to the contract to cover this eventuality,” said Hookham.

Meanwhile, Peter Sand, Xenata’s chief analyst, is clear: “What we see going into March is carriers are pushing for GRI to get implemented, that would lift rates – as of now, they don’t seem to be very successful in doing that.”

Pacific rates peaked in early February, and they have slowly declined since, said Sand, while also conceding that eastbound Pacific rate are currently at an 18-month high at US$4,700/FEU to the US west coast.

“Long-term rates are up by 25% since end-September 2023. Carriers appear to be a in comfortable position – as compared to anything – but specifically due to Red Sea disruption,” stated Sand.

However, Xenata are not expecting rates to soar in the coming year with the fundamental outlook still tough on the carriers.

Supply-side estimates for January are up by 6.8% year-on-year said Sand, adding: “We have no solid numbers on demand for January yet – but if we go with 16.9% you would still not see demand higher than 2021 and 2022, as Jan ’23 was at least a five-year low point.”

He concluded: “Carriers ability to manage capacity is a key element in 2024 and 2025 – but to me, it appears as if rates into the US may have peaked, then flatlined. What comes about in March? a small uptick maybe, then a slide probably.”

Source: Container News

Although the 6-6.5 percent economic growth target for 2024 is challenging, the Government is highly determined to implement strong measures and strategies to reach the set goal.

Government’s determination

On November 9, 2023, the National Assembly officially passed a Resolution on the Socioeconomic Development Plan for 2024. Accordingly, the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target for 2024 is 6-6.5 percent, a goal that requires great efforts and strong determination. Recent forecasts from many international institutions indicate that the global economy in 2024 still faces numerous unpredictable risks, especially the Russia-Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas conflicts, which show no signs of ending. Nevertheless, reputable domestic and international economic research organizations have provided different forecasts regarding the growth prospects of Vietnam’s economy in 2024. They all have confidence in the efforts and results that the economy will achieve in 2024.

The Vietnamese Government has demonstrated a high level of determination in implementing strong measures to achieve the set goals. Under the guidance and leadership of the Party, effective State management, the efficient functioning of the National Assembly, and the resolute governance of the Government and the Prime Minister, the spirit of listening and timely response has been emphasized. Many proactive solutions have been issued and implemented to promote economic development, ensure stability, and improve the livelihoods of the people.

In the first 11 months of 2023, the Government issued 78 decrees and 236 resolutions, while the Prime Minister issued 29 legal normative decisions, 1,575 individual decisions, and 28 instructions. Among them were practical measures such as reducing lending interest rates, stabilizing the foreign exchange market, accelerating disbursement of public investment capital, implementing credit support packages for sectors and industries, granting tax exemptions, reductions, and extensions, as well as providing assistance to businesses, and extending visas for tourists. Additionally, the Government actively and effectively engaged in various foreign activities and international integration efforts, especially in building and implementing high-level agreements. These efforts will contribute to creating the momentum for growth in 2024 and ensuing years.

It is worth noting that the Government has recently issued a Resolution on the key tasks and solutions to improve the business environment and enhance national competitiveness in 2024.

The Resolution’s general objective is to significantly improve the quality of the business environment, aiming to enhance Vietnam’s position in international rankings. It aims to create a healthy competitive environment, increase the number of newly established enterprises rapidly, reduce the proportion of temporarily suspended businesses, and increase the number of enterprises engaged in innovation, green transformation, and digital transformation. Additionally, it focuses on reducing input costs and compliance costs in investment and business activities, mitigating policy risks, strengthening trust, creating recovery footholds, and enhancing the resilience of businesses.

Making the most of opportunities

Regarding Vietnam’s economic prospects in 2024, Dr. Nguyen Lam Thanh, Vice Chairman of the National Assembly’s Council for Ethnic Affairs, said that the government’s decisive solutions, along with several resolutions of the National Assembly, have been issued in a timely manner. Vietnam’s economic indicators have shown signs of recovery. Specifically, the industrial sector has experienced good progress. The agricultural sector has created high export values, with rice, fruit and vegetables leading the way. There has been a notable progress in public investment disbursement.

Similarly, Tran Van Lam, Member of the National Assembly’s Finance and Budget Committee, holds a positive view on Vietnam’s economic prospects in 2024. According to him, the implementation of the economic recovery package in 2022-2023 will yield results in the period from 2024 onwards. Specifically, the mechanisms and policies implemented in 2023 will contribute to the economic recovery. Moreover, the strong disbursement of public investment at the end of 2023 and in 2024 will boost domestic consumption and create a ripple effect in the economy. Therefore, achieving a GDP growth rate of 6-6.5 percent is entirely feasible.

To realize the growth targets, Resolution 01/NQ-CP outlines the following main tasks and solutions for implementing the socioeconomic development plan and state budget estimate for 2024:

Firstly, prioritize promoting economic growth, maintaining macroeconomic stability, controlling inflation, and ensuring major balances.

Secondly, continue to review and improve institutions, laws, mechanisms, and policies related to enhancing the effectiveness and efficiency of law implementation; streamline and simplify administrative procedures and business regulations.

Thirdly, strengthen the construction and development of a comprehensive and modern strategic infrastructure system, especially highways, airports, seaports, urban infrastructure, regional infrastructure, digital infrastructure, social infrastructure, healthcare, and education.

Singapore-headquartered Ocean Network Express (ONE) experienced a notable decline in its revenues, earnings, and profits in the third quarter of fiscal year 2023 (October – December), in contrast to the corresponding period in the previous year.

The quarter witnessed a softening of the supply and demand trend, resulting from sluggish consumption growth, reduced cargo movement during the low season, and an influx of new ships.

The company’s loss reached US$83 million, a striking contrast to the US$2.77 billion profit reported in 2022. Additionally, ONE recorded a 46% decline in the quarter revenues to US$3.3 billion. Moreover, the company’s Earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) also saw a reduction to US$170 million, down from the US$3 billion reported in FY2022 same quarter. Furthermore, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) experienced a downturn, reaching minus US$248 million, compared to the US$2.73 billion recorded in 2022.

According to ONE’s statement, in North America, domestic consumption remained robust compared to the previous quarter, but marine cargo movements slowed down as the low season commenced. Meanwhile, in Europe, prolonged inflation led to a stagnation in personal consumption. Additionally, cargo movements faced challenges, exacerbated by uncertainties surrounding the situation in the Middle East, preventing a full-fledged recovery.

ONE noted that the increase in new ship deliveries continued to contribute to the oversupply issue, although its efforts, such as implementing blank sailings and streamlining services, were made to address this issue. While freight rates experienced an increase in December, the overall average remained low throughout the quarter due to sluggish rates in October and November.

The anticipated full-year results for FY2023 indicate a projected profit after tax of US$856 million, marking a decrease from the previous year due to the adverse impact of the softening supply and demand in the freight market.

Despite a positive trend in cargo movements, the subdued consumer demand resulting from prolonged stagnation is hindering a robust recovery in cargo movements. The expectation is that a complete recovery in marine transport cargo movements will require additional time.

“The ongoing increase in supply, driven by the substantial number of new vessel deliveries, is set to persist. However, an immediate tonnage shortage has emerged due to the situation in the Middle East. While the outlook for supply and demand, as well as market conditions in the freight industry, remains highly uncertain, ONE will prioritize maximizing profit. This will be achieved through flexible tonnage deployment and efficient equipment control based on demand,” stated ONE’s spokesperson.

Source: Container News

Ocean Network Express (ONE) announced that it has received Approval in Principle (AiP) for a vessel equipped with Ammonia Dual-fuel technology.

This achievement, combined with ONE’s investment in 12 methanol dual-fueled vessels, represents a significant stride in ONE’s commitment to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050, according to the company’s statement.

The newly AiP-awarded 3,500 TEU vessel is the result of collaborative efforts between ONE, Nihon Shipyard (NSY), and the classification society DNV. This collaboration was initiated as part of a joint development project established in late 2022.

“Ammonia is one of the primary focuses of our research as ammonia fuel has a great potential of generating lower GHG emissions than conventional marine fuels. We are pleased to have made such progress, and we will continue our study on ammonia,” said Koshiro Wake, senior vice president of the Corporate Strategy & Sustainability Department at ONE.

In pursuit of its goal for net-zero emissions by 2050, ONE has been actively exploring the feasibility of ammonia as an alternative fuel by the roadmap for alternative fuels developed by ONE in 2022. As part of this roadmap, ONE has also participated in a bunkering pilot safety study led by GCMD (Global Centre for Maritime Decarbonisation).

“Ammonia is one of the promising future marine fuels with great potential to decarbonize shipping. We are confident that DNV’s rules for ammonia will help our customers to safely adopt this new fuel type once the infrastructure is in place. We are grateful to our JDP partners for entrusting us with this pioneering project that will help the entire maritime industry to adopt ammonia as a marine fuel,” commented Cristina Saenz de Santa Maria, regional manager of South East Asia, Pacific & India, Maritime at DNV.

The ONE Green Strategy has established an ambitious goal to attain Net-Zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, covering Scope 2 and 3, by the year 2050. A fundamental component of ONE’s green initiatives involves transitioning from conventional fuels to alternative fuels. In pursuit of this target, ONE said it will persist in researching and studying various alternative fuels on its journey to achieving net-zero emissions by 2050.

Source: Container News